After his ruling Liberal Party suffered a humiliating defeat in a special election, doubts about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership grew. However, the unpopular leader is determined to hold onto office ahead of a forthcoming national vote and the U.S. Presidential elections in 2024, according to a report.
After nearly nine years in power, the Liberals were narrowly defeated on Monday in a Montreal riding that was considered to be among the party’s safest seats, according to Reuters.
The setback came after a loss in Toronto towards the end of June, which strengthened the belief that the Liberals’ chances of winning the next national election are slim. The term for Trudeau’s minority administration ends at the end of October 2025, but with the smaller New Democratic Party withdrawing its support, an early election has seemed more plausible.
Nevertheless, Trudeau gave no indication on Tuesday that he will resign before to the upcoming election campaign. Furthermore, the party has few tools at its disposal to oust him.
Notwithstanding predictions that the Liberals would be soundly defeated by the official opposition, the right-of-center Conservatives, in the upcoming election due to discontent with inflation and the housing crisis, Trudeau and his closest allies insist he is staying put and has plenty of time to help the party turn things around.
The primary issue facing him right now is that he is no longer in power of the House of Commons, where the Liberals are very marginally represented. In order to retain the Liberals in power, the left-leaning NDP signed a pact in 2022, but this month they broke it.
With a strong showing against the Conservatives, the NDP managed to hold onto a seat in Manitoba’s western region and grow its share of the vote in Montreal. Legislators will be holding many votes on the Liberals’ confidence in the coming months; a loss would set up an election, but the NDP could decide to hold onto power until it can restore its own standing.
It may be challenging to maintain a minority administration, and it’s unknown how far Trudeau can push his legislative program. On Monday, the Liberals said that they will concentrate on passing laws pertaining to citizenship and defense.
There is no easy transition for Trudeau to assume the presidency, unlike in the US, where Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden resigned to make room for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Senior ministers may push Trudeau out if the polls remained dismal, according to a senior Liberal. However, the Liberal, who asked to remain anonymous due to the delicate nature of the matter, stated there was no assurance Trudeau, who sources claim is a recalcitrant guy, would take any notice.
Since a stand-in must come from among lawmakers, former governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney—who is frequently cited as a possible Trudeau replacement—is out of the running.
It is party customary for the temporary leader to not run for permanent succession. That may discourage influential members of the cabinet from running against Trudeau in the near future, such Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne.
Nevertheless, according to Frank Graves, president of the Ekos polling company, switching leaders could not improve Liberal chances.
